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☆ The UK has 'probably the most convincing disinflation story,' economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe UK has 'probably the most convincing disinflation story,' economist saysSanjay Raja, chief U.K. economist at Deutsche Bank, discusses the divergence between U.S. and U.K. central banks.

Persons: Sanjay Raja Organizations: Deutsche Bank

☆ 'Last chance saloon': UK finance minister expected to pledge pre-election tax cuts
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-04 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

British Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt said earlier this month the U.K. would not enter a recession this year. LONDON — Economists expect U.K. Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt to use a small fiscal windfall to deliver a modest package of tax cuts at his Spring Budget on Wednesday. However, the big questions over tax cuts remain heading into Wednesday's statement. Raja suggested the finance minister will err on the side of caution in loosening fiscal policy, favoring supply side support over boosting demand. "Therefore, tax cuts to national insurance contributions (NICs) and changes to child benefits are more likely to come in the Spring Budget (in contrast to earlier expectations of income tax cuts)."

Persons: Jeremy Hunt, Hunt, Sanjay Raja, Raja Organizations: British, LONDON, Finance, Budget, Conservative, Labour Party, Treasury, Independent, Deutsche Bank, Bank of England

☆ Deutsche Bank discusses key questions ahead of UK's Autumn Statement
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDeutsche Bank discusses key questions ahead of UK's Autumn StatementSanjay Raja of Deutsche Bank says "the market's getting a sense that this could be a bit of a blockbuster event."

Persons: Sanjay Organizations: Deutsche Bank

☆ UK stocks fall as real estate shares drop; economic data on tap
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-06 | by ( Shubham Batra | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Toby Melville/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSummaryCompanies Real estate shares top losersMelrose surges after unit signs deal with GE AerospaceFTSE 100 down 0.1%, FTSE 250 off 0.4%Nov 6 (Reuters) - UK stocks inched lower on Monday led by a drop in shares of real estate investment trusts, while investors awaited key economic data to assess the strength of the British economy. The commodity-heavy FTSE 100 (.FTSE) edged 0.1% lower, while the mid-cap index FTSE 250 (.FTMC) fell 0.4% after logging its best week in a year on Friday. Shares of real estate investment trusts (.FTNMX351020) shed 1.2% after the index tracking real estate stocks rose sharply last week. Other economic data this week includes housing prices, construction and services activity for October. Reporting by Shubham Batra in Bengaluru; Editing by Varun H K and Eileen SorengOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Toby Melville, Sanjay Raja, Andrew Bailey, Shubham Batra, Varun, Eileen Soreng Organizations: London Stock Exchange Group, City of, REUTERS, Real, Melrose, GE Aerospace FTSE, Aerospace, Melrose Industries, GKN Aerospace, GE Aerospace, Deutsche Bank, Bank of England, Wizz, Ryanair, JD Sports, Citigroup, Thomson Locations: City, City of London, Britain, Irish, Bengaluru

☆ The Bank of England is facing major losses on its bond purchases — and it's set to get much worse
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-30 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

In late July, the central bank estimated that it would require the U.K. Treasury to backstop £150 billion ($189 billion) of losses on its asset purchase facility (APF). It saw the BOE accrue £895 billion worth of bond holdings while interest rates were historically low. However, the pace at which the central bank has had to tighten monetary policy in a bid to tame inflation means the costs have risen more sharply than anticipated. watch now"First, interest rates have risen far above levels assumed in the fiscal watchdog's spring forecasts. "On the other hand, though, while QE gilts are not sold, the BoE pays Bank Rate on the ~£900bn reserves it created to buy them.

Persons: Dan Kitwood, BOE, Sanjay Raja, Raja, Imogen Bachra, BoE, Bachra, QE Organizations: Bank of England, Getty, Deutsche Bank ., Treasury, AFP, Deutsche Bank, Bank, NatWest, — Locations: —

☆ British workers keep getting pay raises — despite the Bank of England urging them not to ask for more money
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Both Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and U.K. Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt on Monday told an audience in the City of London that high wage settlements were harming their efforts to contain inflation. Much of the increase in pay has been driven by the private sector, with annual wage growth increasing to 7.6% in the three months to April. However, Bank of England Governor Bailey noted in his Mansion House speech on Monday that the British economy has proven unexpectedly resilient. Last summer saw a slew of strikes and protests as real wages, which reflect the power of a worker's pay after accounting for inflation, declined at a record rate. "No question about it, current nominal wage growth remains far too high relative to the sustainable rate of probably around 3.5-4.0% yoy.

Persons: Mark Kerrison, Andrew Bailey, Jeremy Hunt, Stuart Cole, BoE, Rishi Sunak, Danni Hewson, AJ Bell, Bank of England Governor Bailey, Sanjay Raja, Raja, Equiti's Cole, Bailey, Kallum Pickering, Pickering Organizations: National Education Union, Department for Education, Getty, LONDON, Bank of England, National Statistics, . Finance, City of, Equiti, Monetary, Deutsche Bank, MPC, Treasury, Bank, The, England's Locations: London, United Kingdom, City, City of London, Ukraine

☆ Major central banks were expected to pause rate hikes soon. Now it's not so clear cut
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Brendan McDermid | ReutersThe market has long been pricing in interest rate cuts from major central banks toward the end of 2023, but sticky core inflation, tight labor markets and a surprisingly resilient global economy are leading some economists to reassess. Economic resilience and persistent labor market tightness could exert upward pressure on wages and inflation, which is in danger of becoming entrenched. The Bank of England The U.K. faces a much tougher inflation challenge than the U.S. and the euro zone, and the U.K. consumer price inflation rate fell by less than expected in April. Meanwhile core inflation jumped to 6.8% from 6.2% in March, which will be of greater concern to the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee. Risk management considerations will, we think, force the MPC to push rates higher and further than previously intended."

To be sure, the April inflation data hit the UK debt market like a thunderbolt. While the headline consumer price inflation rate dropped to 8.7% from 10.1% in March, as energy prices ebbed, that was still far higher than forecast and core inflation rates hit their highest in 31 years at just under 7%. And a chief concern for many households is ongoing annual food price inflation still near 20%. Sterling and real yield spreadsNew UK gilt shock? Using 5-year real yields from the index-linked bond market, that premium jumped almost 40bp this week to its highest since last October.

☆ Bank of England set for 12th straight interest rate hike, but the outlook remains murky
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

People walk outside the Bank of England in the City of London financial district, in London, Britain, January 26, 2023. "All this, and updated projections, should be consistent with our call for a final 25bp hike at the June meeting to a terminal rate of 4.75%." Updated forecasts Alongside the rate decision, the MPC will update its forecasts on Thursday. "Thus, while our base case remains for a final hike in June, we see risks that they skip this meeting and deliver the final hike in August," Ardagno's team said. Deutsche Bank Senior Economist Sanjay Raja echoed the projections for a 7-2 split in favor of a 25 basis point hike on Thursday, followed by another quarter-point in June.

☆ Morgan Stanley, Deutsche and others raise UK rate-hike forecasts
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Simon DawsonLONDON, April 19 (Reuters) - A number of banks including Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank on Wednesday revised upward expectations for further UK interest rate hikes as a second straight day of data suggested price pressures remain elevated. Previously, the bank had anticipated no change in UK rates next month. Hence, we now expect a 25bp hike from the BoE in May," Morgan Stanley UK economist Bruna Skarica said. Deutsche Bank said it also expects two more rate hikes from the BoE, taking the terminal rate to 4.75% in June. "Importantly, we now see risks to our terminal rate forecast skewed to the upside," said Deutsche Bank senior economist Sanjay Raja.

LONDON, Dec 16 (Reuters) - The Bank of England looks like it's being outed as the weakest link. The primary reason was that two of the nine-person MPC voted to end the Bank's rate rise campaign right away as the recession the Bank thinks is already underway will get entrenched next year. But with the median economist forecast for the Bank's terminal rate somewhere around 4.25%, markets still seem aggressively positioned for a hawkish surprise and the pound may be more vulnerable to that revision as the winter progresses. Significantly, the implied Fed terminal rate edged higher to 4.9% after its policy setpiece on Wednesday - even if is still below the 5.1% the Fed indicated. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsThe opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.

By contrast, the median forecast for a similar poll on the U.S. Federal Reserve is exactly where futures currently price the Fed's terminal rate next year - 5.0%. Any reversion of terminal rate pricing to consensus or below could see the pound wobble again. "That said, we have been stressing downside risks to our terminal rate projection, given the constant dovish messaging from the MPC. BoE poll question on Terminal Rate Risks? Central Bank Rate Hike CampaignSterling volatilityThe opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.

☆ British government to usher in new era of austerity in effort to restore market confidence
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-15 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

We're going to see spending cuts," Hunt told the BBC on Sunday, while also promising the government would deliver a new and more focused plan to help with household energy bills beyond April. First, an increase in council tax with local authorities allowed to raise the level of council tax above 3% without a referendum," Raja said. "And second, an increase in both the duration and scale of the windfall tax on oil and gas 'excess profits'." Spending cuts, again executed via "stealth," could take the form of "nominal cash freezes to departmental budgets," Raja said, with spending budgets topped up minimally going forward. "If he wants to reassure the markets, he will have to announce early action in the form of a big fiscal tightening.

☆ Bank of England set for biggest rate hike in 33 years, but economists expect dovish tilt
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

New Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has scrapped the controversial tax cuts at the heart of predecessor Liz Truss' fiscal policy agenda, meaning fiscal and monetary policy are no longer pulling in opposite directions. Deutsche Bank also expects a split vote on Thursday in favor of a 75-basis-point hike, taking the key interest rate to 3%. Deutsche Bank now expects the Bank Rate to reach 4.5% by May next year, down from its previous projection of 4.75%, on account of retreating fiscal stimulus and a push toward fiscal consolidation. watch nowBank of England Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy Ben Broadbent said in a recent speech that GDP would take a "pretty material" hit from such aggressive policy tightening. The Bank's August growth forecasts, which already pointed to a five-quarter recession, were based on a much lower Bank Rate of around 3%.

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